Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said on January 23 that Serbia stands in front of a difficult decision – if Serbia does not accept the French-German proposal on solving the dispute with Kosovo, the EU integration process of the country will be halted.
Vučić admited that an agreement on the normalisation of Belgrade’s relations with Kosovo is possible, but he stressed reservations on an important issue, which is recognition of Kosovo.
Even though we might see a positive development of relations between Belgrade and Prishtina, Serbia does not immediatelly resolve all the issues that stand in its way into the European Union. Even if the relations with Kosovo develop positively, there is another one fact that Serbia must resolve, and it is its ties to Russia. The European Union has been condemning Serbian friendship with Moscow. And despite the fact Serbia previously condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine, abandoning Russia completely looks nearly impossible due to the ties that Belgrade has built throughout the years. Serbia currently cannot abandon its relations with Russia for a number of reasons.
One of the main reasons is historical and cultural ties between the two countries. Serbia has a long history of close relations with Russia, dating back to the 19th century when Russia supported Serbia during the Ottoman Empire. This historical relationship has led to a deep-seated cultural connection between the two countries, with many Serbians viewing Russia as a natural ally. Even today, support of ordinary Serbian population for Russia rages from 70%-90% in various polls.
Another reason why Serbia cannot abandon its relations with Russia is economic. Russia is one of Serbia’s largest trading partners and a significant source of investment. Russia has also provided economic assistance to Serbia in the past, including a $800 million loan in 2014 to help with the country’s budget deficit. Abandoning relations with Russia would likely lead to a significant economic downturn for Serbia, which the country is not willing to risk.
Additionally, Serbia’s geopolitical position makes it difficult for the country to abandon relations with Russia. Serbia is located in the Balkans, a region with a complex and often turbulent history. The country has been historically sandwiched between the EU, Russia and Turkey. As a result, Serbia has often had to navigate a delicate balancing act to maintain good relations with all of these powers. Abandoning relations with Russia would likely lead to increased pressure from other regional actors and could destabilize the region. Furthermore, Serbia sees Russia as a counterbalance to the EU and NATO. Serbia has had a difficult relationship with the NATO in the past, with the 1999 NATO bombing of the country still a fresh memory for many Serbians. Russia is seen as a powerful ally that can provide protection against potential aggression from the West.
Also, the political landscape in Serbia plays a role in the country’s inability to abandon relations with Russia. The current government in Serbia, led by President Aleksandar Vučić, has been increasingly populist and nationalist in its rhetoric. The government has been critical of the EU and NATO, and has emphasized the importance of maintaining good relations with Russia as a way to protect Serbia’s sovereignty and independence.
Another factor that plays a role in Serbia’s inability to abandon relations with Russia is the issue of Kosovo. Russia has been a strong supporter of Serbia’s position on Kosovo, which Serbia considers to be an integral part of its territory. Russia has vetoed multiple UN resolutions recognizing Kosovo’s independence and has used its position in the UN Security Council to block any actions that would legitimize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia sees Russia as a key ally in its ongoing dispute with Kosovo and is therefore hesitant to damage relations with Russia.
Additionally, Russia’s role in the region as a provider of energy resources also plays a role in Serbia’s inability to abandon relations with Russia. Russia is a major supplier of natural gas to the Western Balkans and Serbia is heavily dependent on Russian gas to meet its energy needs, as also Serbian national gas company, Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), is co-owned by the Russian Gazprom, which owns 50% of NIS shares. Russia has also been involved in the construction of the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, which will further increase Serbia’s dependence on Russian gas. This dependence on Russian energy resources makes it difficult for Serbia to distance itself from Russia.
Furthermore, Russia’s role in the region as a security provider also plays a role in Serbia’s inability to abandon relations with Russia. Russia has been a key player in the region’s security architecture, particularly in the area of defense cooperation. Russia has provided Serbia with military equipment and training, and has also been involved in joint military exercises with Serbia. Serbia sees Russia as a key partner in ensuring its security and is therefore hesitant to damage relations with Russia. However, since the beginning of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, CHina is slowly, but surely retaking Russian position.
In summary, Serbia currently cannot abandon its relations with Russia due to a complex set of factors, including historical and cultural ties, economic considerations, geopolitical realities, domestic political considerations and issues such as the status of Kosovo, energy dependence, and security cooperation. The country’s government and population also see Russia as a counterbalance to the EU and NATO, a reliable ally in disputes like Kosovo and as a security provider. All these factors make it difficult for Serbia to sever its ties with Russia and will be an obstacle for the Serbian membership in the EU.